Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 4.941098 5.843396 6.841731 8.025144 9.386389 10.899769 12.706185
2025-05-25 3.322002 4.459410 5.859784 7.696451 10.025824 12.864154 16.564742
2025-06-01 2.439437 3.654519 5.293298 7.631629 10.842481 15.050933 20.929006
2025-06-08 1.856611 3.066773 4.834911 7.547575 11.530659 17.076446 25.269705
2025-06-15 1.569034 2.818778 4.773182 7.958744 12.900826 20.126492 31.290942
2025-06-22 1.281529 2.494831 4.518255 8.007685 13.701791 22.404092 36.401514
2025-06-29 1.054530 2.215297 4.271391 8.006923 14.390168 24.543194 41.470615
2025-07-06 0.873281 1.973566 4.037351 7.974596 14.995810 26.579652 46.531941
2025-07-13 0.813804 1.952809 4.191019 8.632055 16.825026 30.737401 55.318691
2025-07-20 0.719848 1.838793 4.145950 8.911399 18.010327 33.915221 62.740794
2025-07-27 0.646391 1.752012 4.137153 9.251266 19.330327 37.421577 70.976345
2025-08-03 0.556994 1.607147 3.982314 9.275893 20.053377 39.927249 77.660711
2025-08-10 0.454202 1.407204 3.680552 8.970360 20.133590 41.335921 82.629221
2025-08-17 0.361819 1.208567 3.344143 8.539774 19.914237 42.175027 86.656062
2025-08-24 0.304667 1.089955 3.172602 8.444952 20.367919 44.323368 93.272117
2025-08-31 0.256823 0.983969 3.010632 8.344676 20.792441 46.442637 99.986662
2025-09-07 0.239029 0.966544 3.074286 8.790867 22.456680 51.164226 112.068944
2025-09-14 0.208390 0.897300 2.984456 8.843208 23.237700 54.140918 120.909240
2025-09-21 0.180394 0.827980 2.880238 8.841984 23.891870 56.900847 129.502039
2025-09-28 0.155485 0.761317 2.769818 8.806549 24.458178 59.514015 137.969577
2025-10-05 0.153203 0.782284 2.929261 9.524069 26.914929 66.385270 155.692432
2025-10-12 0.140570 0.757085 2.939603 9.828767 28.383686 71.193474 169.376510
2025-10-19 0.130515 0.739566 2.971551 10.199370 30.053924 76.566603 184.587102